Retail Dude

I apologise for a late entrance & a late welcome to Roli.

Getting back to business, that of Retail now…There is general misunderstanding, among most, about Recession & Depression.

Recession is broadly defined as “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP growth, real personal income, employment (non-farm payrolls), industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.”

A sustained recession may become a depression.

Generally, periods labeled “depressions” are marked by a substantial and sustained shortfall of the ability to purchase goods relative to the amount that could be produced using current resources and technology

Therefore, the time is hardly ripe, to judge general consumer spend-trends & specifically that via organised retail.

FMCG consumption via Indian organised retail is just about a “single” digit of the total, naturally. On top of this, we need to understand that juxtpaosition some tactically publiseh trends, though “textually” similar sounding but actually worlds apart, may not be addressing the real problem at all.
For example, Roli mentions “17-18% FMCG growth, followed by “more foreign brands” entering India & so on so forth”.

IF we agree to FMCG’s lion’s share selling through unorganised retail, these observations are very unrelated!
A daily labourer who bought 2 extra packs of Lux, because he could not afford two new sets of clothes, for his teenaged daughters could well be the scenario!

We can safely presume that at least 70% of our population (check if your housemaid knows) are quite unaware of the turn world / Indian economy has taken! And “that” is a BIG number of Indians, consuming a BIG chunk of FMCG! Of course there will be growth here!

In a very disturbing report, recently, we also get to know that many “global” retail biggies are actually conducting “experiments” in partnership with glamorous Indian partners! Needless to say, we Indians ARE the guinea-pigs. The same learning will again to “sold” to us at high prices. Look at the pharma industry, for instance.
As I have posted in various earlier rolls, I request the fresh minds, like yours’ to look “beyond” the made-up retail face. Scratch & peel off the foundation, it’s just a few layer-years deep! The surface below has been shaped & moulded by decades of austerity, food-control & malnutrition. All “actionable” like British rule was, through the fight for independence!

Yes, organising retail, developing supply-chains, eliminating fakes/spurious products - all these have huge potential in India.

The path, however, is nowhere close to the high-speed expressways we’ve been sold on. There are huge undulations on this road which will shake our confidence, miles of dust which may choke our verbose throats, rocky dry riverbeds most likely to challenge the J-Lo ish Michelins & steep climbs on where it will be easy to lose grip - the glitzy CRVs & Beemers will not make it I’m afraid!

But then, that does not mean they’ll run amok in the city streets either!

- Arnab

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