Black Friday, Cyber Monday and Mobile Tuesday

Apparel Retail, Economy, Retail, Retail Strategy
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These days came to fill some colors to the black and white balance sheets of american retailers, or we can say black, cyber and mobile days came to save the holiday season in this weak economic period. And as a result retailers not only got huge footfall but also an awesome sale. Some store managers quoted –

“Morning traffic was “awesome”, and “even better than last year.”

“I’m guessing it was about 85 percent credit and 15 percent cash,”

“People are happy, and few — if any — mention the economy.”

 As soon as I heard about these black Friday and cyber Monday, one thing came into my mind and that was Big Bazaar. It’s the only retailer in India who leveraged these similar occasions in India like “Maha Saver theen din” on Dhanterash and something similar even on Independence Day(I am not saying other retailers don’t do these kind of promotion but the kind of advertisement Big bazaar do just overwhelm all others). And because of this it made huge retail sales, regardless of razor thin margins due to offers there was profit, reason was volumes. But there is negative aspect of these days and that is handling tremendous traffic and rush, which Big Bazaar many a times failed to handles and same happen on Black Friday, retailers were unable to handle rush and on Cyber Monday most of the retail websites goes down too often causing inconvenience to customers. But in the last what matters were the sales for retailers and special offers to consumers.

And whats there in this for Indian retailers – a lesson to form a community not a competition and organize these days nationwide and organized retail wide, together they will be better equip to handle rush and to make profits.

- Prateek Katiyar

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Multiple Os, finally….feels so gooooood

Economy, Retail Strategy, Rural
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http://thedailyretail.com/Retail_news/Indian_rn/article/index.php?article_name=25nov01&mailer=1

The first one, as usual, took a long time coming! Big boys, you see, use all the resources to extend the first rapture. The “partner” should not feel cheated or dissatisfied. If that means an IPO viagra, so be it. One BIG, shattering run on board then?

http://thedailyretail.com/Retail_news/Indian_rn/article/index.php?article_name=25nov03&mailer=1

Not as explosive as the 1st burst. But longer, sweeter, mellower. Took more effort as most of the stored resources were spurted out in the “urban, glam retail” push-ups (debut). But this is a wonderful lingering feeling, makes one a wee bit “floaty” and the ambience feels surreal like a foggy winter early morning. BUT that’s fine, as we will either need to follow the tail-lights of that huge 16 wheel tractor trailor from Wisdom Roadways ahead of us. Rest can stop for a while, have a cat nap & move with renewed vigour when the sun’s up and strong. It always is…..

http://thedailyretail.com/Retail_news/Indian_rn/article/index.php?article_name=25nov02&mailer=1

Almost Heaven….FMCGiana, no-ridge arbi chips, bathing by the river….

A slightly mutialted line, borrowed from “country” king Denver. So, finally we are all singing the same song…country roads! We had to take a looooong break before we could regenrate our anatomies, before they could rise to the real challenge again. BUT what’s important is they DID. Hansa (remember Khichdi, the terrific comedy series?) would be saying “suppukk” & the ever-confident “Prafuls” have most probably been “blown” (mind Silly) away by now! That article was close to Nirvana, almost….

http://thedailyretail.com/Retail_news/Indian_rn/article/index.php?article_name=25nov04&mailer=1

As expected, this was hardly pleasurable! But, nevertheless, this was the least I could do, while NOT being in Texas. Oh! How I want to convert, to the Church, under that “godly” Bishop…. No, there was no glamour, no Givenchy, no Satya Pauls, but pure “truth” in the new, toned six-packs we see around us, dragging carts, drawing waters, hammering red-hot sickles. They are glistening, without any make-up. Ready to give me my final bliss of the day.

My eyelids are getting heavy…I am fading out….my dreams are on their way.

India can & will shine, brighter, stronger, longer than any other state. We just needed a little re-orientation, to look at the market, rather than “marketing”. 

Thank you guys. 4 in a row is ”rare, very rare”. BUT you guys must get it “well-done” this time around. Not all the cutleries are as sharp as their B-Schools claim :)

- Arnab

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Roxanne, You don’t have to put on the red light….

Economy, Retail Strategy
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“While nothing is certain in India’s future, we can be reasonably sure that consumption will grow rather than decline… Every rupee in the hands of the millions at the bottom of India’s consumption pyramid means another meal, another purchase, another incremental boost to growth – no matter how miniscule it may seem. That is what the retailers are counting on.”

Borrowed from The new book by John Wiley & Sons (Asia) Pte Ltd, India’s Store Wars: Retail Revolution and the Battle for the Next 500 Million Shoppers.

While I am in complete agreement with the words italicised in the opening para, I am not very sure if the last sentence in the same para holds water!

Take a look at the day’s “retail” headlines:

ADAG goes e-comming: http://thedailyretail.com/Retail_news/Indian_rn/article/index.php?article_name=24nov01&mailer=1

The Indian retail sector will feel the heat of the global financial crisis, though growth momentum may stay in some areas, experts feel: http://thedailyretail.com/Retail_news/Indian_rn/article/index.php?article_name=24nov00&mailer=1

There will be many more I am sure. Naturally. Obviously!

It’s never easy to shallow pride, more so when the bold headlines even 2 quarters back gave the unassuming junta a very different story.

Don’t tell me that the “experts” on boards of various “respectable” retail ventures never saw it coming! That they had no idea how the shamefully unorganised Mom & Pop across the country will unite and deal heavy blows and that they were completely oblivious of the Indian economy heading for a well-synced chaos, in tow with the world markets!

IF they were, it’s time they returned their high-value certificates to their supposedly unquestionable alma-maters! It may actually be a good idea for such institutes to start a buy-back scheme. They can take the papers back & return a percentage of the fees they had charged, after factoring in PBITDA and other mouthful management terms.

IF the certified guys were actually in the dark about the imminent future, in any case they’d need all the fund soon, to put brakes on their quick slide, from Blackberry Class to Fevicol Bus-back Class!

Worse, however, is IF, IF, IF they “knew” and still decided to have a party with stakeholders’ money!

In this case, the stakeholders should ideally use their gym-toned, trainer-adorned right feet to target specific anatomies of such managers and put out full-page colour ads with mugshots etc., to pre-warn future promoters. Yes, I do agree that the job market can hardly afford another such literally knee-jerk, kick-123 shock, but then, there will not be too many to go to press with.

By the way, too few “talent” hunters were / are willing to undertake ample due-diligence anyway! So, they can, safely put their fat packets in Fixed Deposits & live on the 10.5% interest rates, for a while.

Wishful thinking….even fantasies you may say!

I will agree, for once. Nothing will happen. Very few will ever take the pain of exploring “their illusive” BOP and promoters will only be too happy to woo such mavericks.

It’s the public’s money sweetheart!

Another Sting of that exotic Tequila anyone….? No…then let’s sing…Roxanne….!

http://www.lyrics-now.com/S/Sting-lyrics/The-Very-Best-Of-Sting-_AND_-The-Police/Roxanne.shtml

- Arnab

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Shrinks welcome, explain Retail Shrinkage….

Economy
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No, I hardly qualify for anything, leave alone as a “Shrink”.

Guess many of you have read the article today, on Retail Shrinkage? For the uninitiated, this term has nothing to do with the economy or trend! In simple words, it is the Thefts / Pilferage phenomenon that plagues organised retailers, the world over.

Read more at: http://thedailyretail.com/Retail_news/Indian_rn/article/index.php?article_name=18nov01&mailer=1

However, my take from the article is a bit different. I will also take refuge under some number-crunching in the process. Given my limited education & complete absence of professionally acceptable suffixes, there are chances that the arithmetic will be full of errors. So, start reading with E&OE as embedded, please.

India has the highest “Shrinkage Rate” - 3.10%, among 36 countries covered in the study, followed closely by Mexico, Thailand, South Africa & Malaysia.

The lowest rates of shrinkage were found in Japan, Austria and Switzerland (all 1.01%), Germany (1.10%) and Denmark (1.20%).

The total shrinkage in India in 2008 is a US $ 2.543 billions (1000 Crore+) which is equivalent to 3.10% of retail sales – an increase of 6.9% as compared to 2007, when the figure was 2.90%.

Customer theft contributed around 44.7% of shrinkage losses, employee theft was responsible for 23.7% as compared to 8.4% by Suppliers / Vendors. Rest are mostly accounting / admin errors.

Further among the Internal retail theft; merchandise theft was thought to be responsible for 27.8% of internal fraud, whereas cash, coupons, vouchers or gift cards contribute 32.0% of internal fraud, refund fraud and false markdowns contribute 14.6% of internal fraud with a collusion of 19.1%. Besides this large financial frauds were responsible for 6.5% of the internal retail theft of 2008.

In the Asia-Pacific regions including Australia, India, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore & Thailand; highest average rates of shrinkage were seen in apparel/clothing and fashion/accessories(1.71%) followed by vehicle/autoparts/DIY hardware/building material retail (1.70%) and cosmetics/perfumes/beauty supply/pharmacy (1.66%). The lowest rates were in footwear/shoes/sports & sporting goods (0.66%), jewellery/watches (0.83%)

This data is indeed very interesting & might be a pointer to the following possibilities:

1. Shrinkage is considerably lesser in “developed” countries,

2. The thieves (customers + employees + vendor resources) are likely to be from middle / lower middle households,

3. Many of these may constitute of casual visitors who turned to lifters rather than shoppers,

4. The most popular stolen items are NOT essential commodities or food! and

5. Therefore has a large enough “buyer” base.

Once I add the possibilities with Fin Min PC’s request to “Reduce MRPs” & our yesterday’s debate (Gates Syndrome), that sinking feeling gets very strong!

Hope we ARE thinking, differently, for our own sake!

- Arnab

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The “Gates” Syndrome

Economy
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I remember watching a live broadcast few years ago. Mr. Bill Gates & co were addressing the press, most probably at the launch of an OS or something similar. Now, I am not quoting verbatim of course, but more or less the gist of the discussions.

One lady, who looked Asian, asked a question very close to my heart: “We all know how piracy is affecting legit sales of software. Why can’t MS reduce sticker price of their OS to $10, instead of $100 & bring a true fight to this menace?”

The answer, however, wasn’t & still isn’t one of my favourites: “It does not make business sense to sell such a sophisticated (???) product at such prices! We would rather sell limited quantities, unlock the value quicker & keep using the same to provide more sophisticated products to the world (???). Who has the time, infrastructure or wherewithal to make commercial sense of a $10 product?”

In short, Gates & Co. were happy to sell, say 1 million official OS discs & also made enough money thereby. IF the rest of the 9 million users were operating their cheapskate PCs off pirated software, so be it!

If we look at MS’s POV clinically, it does make “some” sense. After all a software is NOT soap! It’s NOT supposed to used by anybody & everybody. And even if they aspire to, they should NEVER forget that they CANNOT ever AFFORD the “real thing”. Come on, inclusive is a word that belong’s in the Dictionary of Political Democracy, right?

Wrong.

Remember T Series in the eighties? They literally upgraded the Indian radio junkies to Compact Cassettes & portable tape-recorders! Yes, SONY, HMV & their ilks did have their archives on audio-cassettes, before T Series did, but cassettes, for them, were “sophisticated” products….like Windows may be?

Ms Moser Baer was absolutely on the ball when they took on the “DVD” format a-la T Series. However, their front-end failed to sweat and muddled things up quite a bit, during the 1st few years. Today Moser Baer has got the reins back and I am certain they will have their act together, pretty soon.

What am I driving at? The same! Just as pirated / spurious goods do not contribute much to a nation’s vital economy, “elitist” products too end up fattening a very few hand-picked wallets.

Unless we address the mass, grow usage exponentially (of all consumables), our economies will inevitably keep getting cyclically top-heavy & then topple.

We need to cure our Gate’s Syndrome & push Rs.10 as the most monetizable MRP. The sooner, the better.

- Arnab

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Scratch, beneath the retail surface….

Economy, Retail
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I apologise for a late entrance & a late welcome to Roli.

Getting back to business, that of Retail now…There is general misunderstanding, among most, about Recession & Depression.

Recession is broadly defined as “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP growth, real personal income, employment (non-farm payrolls), industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.”

A sustained recession may become a depression.

Generally, periods labeled “depressions” are marked by a substantial and sustained shortfall of the ability to purchase goods relative to the amount that could be produced using current resources and technology

Therefore, the time is hardly ripe, to judge general consumer spend-trends & specifically that via organised retail.

FMCG consumption via Indian organised retail is just about a “single” digit of the total, naturally. On top of this, we need to understand that juxtpaosition some tactically publiseh trends, though “textually” similar sounding but actually worlds apart, may not be addressing the real problem at all.
For example, Roli mentions “17-18% FMCG growth, followed by “more foreign brands” entering India & so on so forth”.

IF we agree to FMCG’s lion’s share selling through unorganised retail, these observations are very unrelated!
A daily labourer who bought 2 extra packs of Lux, because he could not afford two new sets of clothes, for his teenaged daughters could well be the scenario!

We can safely presume that at least 70% of our population (check if your housemaid knows) are quite unaware of the turn world / Indian economy has taken! And “that” is a BIG number of Indians, consuming a BIG chunk of FMCG! Of course there will be growth here!

In a very disturbing report, recently, we also get to know that many “global” retail biggies are actually conducting “experiments” in partnership with glamorous Indian partners! Needless to say, we Indians ARE the guinea-pigs. The same learning will again to “sold” to us at high prices. Look at the pharma industry, for instance.
As I have posted in various earlier rolls, I request the fresh minds, like yours’ to look “beyond” the made-up retail face. Scratch & peel off the foundation, it’s just a few layer-years deep! The surface below has been shaped & moulded by decades of austerity, food-control & malnutrition. All “actionable” like British rule was, through the fight for independence!

Yes, organising retail, developing supply-chains, eliminating fakes/spurious products - all these have huge potential in India.

The path, however, is nowhere close to the high-speed expressways we’ve been sold on. There are huge undulations on this road which will shake our confidence, miles of dust which may choke our verbose throats, rocky dry riverbeds most likely to challenge the J-Lo ish Michelins & steep climbs on where it will be easy to lose grip - the glitzy CRVs & Beemers will not make it I’m afraid!

But then, that does not mean they’ll run amok in the city streets either!

- Arnab

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Riding the opposite wave

Economy, Retail, Retail Strategy
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This economic downturn definitely hitted hard the retail business, a business where retailer operates on razor thin margins. And in this time of crisis along with the stock market these margins also dropped, because despite of losses in this period of economic slowdown, the money required for proper operation of existing structure of particular retailer comes from these margins only. But all these retailers are hoping for a dawn after this dark, the dawn of Christmas festive season. As Nielsen reported that, this year, U.S. consumers are expected to spend more than $98 billion during the November-December holiday retail season, and every retailer is eyeing on that amount.

But there are some retailers that not only fought with the toughest economic condition but posted stellar financial results. While other retailers are struggling to support their existing retail structure, these retailers have ambitious plans to open new stores throughout the remainder of 2008 and well into 2009. Some of them are big names while some are small retailers with big dreams of expansion, but at this time what really matters is their surprising success during this crisis. The List of these retailers who beat the odds is -

1.       Target                              - to open 45 new stores

2.       Aeropostale                    - to open 100 stores during the next 18 months

3.       The Buckle                      - In September, same-store sales rose 19.7 percent

4.       Family Dollar                  - to open approximately 200 new stores

5.       RadioShack                      - In September, same store sales grew 7.7 percent

6.       DSW Shoes                      - projected goal of 35 new locations in 2008

7.       KB Toys                            - to open 30 seasonal stores across the country just in time for the holiday season

8.       Tractor Supply                - 21 new store openings for the remainder of 2008

9.       Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance - plans to add 180 stores over the next two years

10.   PriceSmart                      - same-store sales for September 2008 rose 15.3 percent.

-Prateek Katiyar

Sources- Nielsen, RIS News

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Booms and Busts!

Economy, Retail Strategy
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No, this post is not about Diwali, and you should certainly not think anything naughty. This is a phrase which has been doing rounds in my mind, since the start of the global meltdown. I have always been fascinated by crackers, and my most favorite kinds are the green threaded one’s, which look deadly enough to blow the whole street away, but end up giving some light to the street. This post is all about that with focus on retail of course, I have witnessed quiet a few economic booms in my life span so far, the most talked about of-course is the “DOT-COM”boom, and then, when out of sheer boredom I ended up doing a PG in retail and merchandise management, I got to hear about a developing, 97% market capturing, “future”istic, BOOM! yeah! the retail boom, and then we had Big Bazaars, the ever silent subhiksha, the loud reliance marts, the stop for shoppers, the trent for westside’s, and everything seemed to be retailing around! hec, they even retailed degrees now!

Wal-Mart, was (is) ruling the Forbes listings, and every one was awed with there strategies, lower pricing, and soon enough, we had the replica’s happening in India as well, not that the lower pricing was something new for us, We were quiet accustomed to bargaining, and lowering down the prices our selves ;) but then it was all as they say “Retail Retail Retail”!

I could judge the “DOT-COM” bust way long back, when they started funding every venture which ended with a DOT-COM, and had a tested method from west in there hands, I remember a e-grocery site providing home delivery in Chandigarh then, all you need to do was to log on, select the products, check out and get the products delivered, It was a flop show! for reasons which need to go in some other post, and then they even had Yahoo!, Google, Amazon, AOL replicas everywhere, and the best one to survive the crash turns out to be “santabanta.com”, something with our humor and our babes!

Back to the topic! So when we thought that everything was going right for the retail industry, we get to face the golbal meltdown! No one anticipated it! (I see eyebrows raising), over staffed our selves, over stocked our selves, over bought the real estate, and over expanded, because we are a growing economy, with new IT money in our hands, and a new found tool called “EMI”. No wonder! every retail shop now proudly show’s off the BIG EMI signs on there products. So now! when Reliance Retail turns down the offer to its on probation employees, it doesn’t comes as a surprise, and now when I surf around the blogosphere, I get to hear of more retail crashes, and retail busts, Star Bucks has already started reducing its presence, and this post mentions the possible international store closings! but some people (Spinach Group) ofcourse do DARE even during the times of Busting! someones loss is someones gain! ;) 

How do they manage it? Blasts me off, I am afraid of economics, and am heading home to blast some real good crackers now! So here is wishing you and your family a very Happy Diwali! :)

PS: The festive season is around the corner, and we are some lazy dudes around here, so the updates might slow down a bit.

- Sarthak

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A way out to mounting Inflation

Economy
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I am posting a e-mail which sugests a way to curb inflation. It is a good lesson to know that why inflation happens, how can we as a consumer control it by controlling our consumption pattern, how corporates take advantage of inflation and get stuck if they don’t exit at right time. I hope it will be a good lesson to learn. Here goes the story…

A man eats two eggs each morning for breakfast. When he goes to the Kirana store he pays Rs. 12 a dozen. Since a dozen eggs won’t last a week he normally buys two dozens at a time. One day while buying eggs he notices that the price has risen to Rs. 16. The next time he buys groceries, eggs are Rs. 22 a dozen.
When asked to explain the price of eggs the store owner says, “The price has gone up and I have to raise my price accordingly”. This store buys 100 dozen eggs a day. He checked around for a better price and all the distributors have raised their prices. The distributors have begun to buy from the huge egg farms. The small egg farms have been driven out of business. The huge egg farms sell 100,000 dozen eggs a day to distributors. With no competition, they can set the price as they see fit. The distributors then have to raise their prices to the grocery stores. And on and on and on.

As the man kept buying eggs the price kept going up. He saw the big egg trucks delivering 100 dozen eggs each day. Nothing changed there. He checked out the huge egg farms and found they were selling 100,000 dozen eggs to the distributors daily. Nothing had changed but the price of eggs.

Then week before Diwali the price of eggs shot up to Rs. 40 a dozen. Again he asked the grocery owner why and was told, “Cakes and baking for the holiday”. The huge egg farmers know there will be a lot of baking going on and more eggs will be used. Hence, the price of eggs goes up. Expect the same thing at Christmas and other times when family cooking, baking, etc. happen.

This pattern continues until the price of eggs is Rs. 60 a dozen. The man says, “There must be something we can do about the price of eggs”.

He starts talking to all the people in his town and they decide to stop buying eggs. This didn’t work because everyone needed eggs.

Finally, the man suggested only buying what you need. He ate 2 eggs a day. On the way home from work he would stop at the grocery and buy two eggs. Everyone in town started buying 2 or 3 eggs a day.

The grocery store owner began complaining that he had too many eggs in his cooler. He told the distributor that he didn’t need any eggs.

Maybe wouldn’t need any all week.

The distributor had eggs piling up at his warehouse. He told the huge egg farms that he didn’t have any room for eggs would not need any for at least two weeks.

At the egg farm, the chickens just kept on laying eggs. To relieve the pressure, the huge egg farm told the distributor that they could buy the eggs at a lower price.

The distributor said, ” I don’t have the room for the %$&^*&% eggs even if they were free”. The distributor told the grocery store owner that he would lower the price of the eggs if the store would start buying

again.

The grocery store owner said, “I don’t have room for more eggs. The customers are only buying 2 or 3 eggs at a time. Now if you were to drop the price of eggs back down to the original price, the customers

would start buying by the dozen again”.

The distributors sent that proposal to the huge egg farmers but the egg farmers liked the price they were getting for their eggs but, those chickens just kept on laying. Finally, the egg farmers lowered the

price of their eggs. But only a few paisa.

The customers still bought 2 or 3 eggs at a time. They said, “when the price of eggs gets down to where it was before, we will start buying by the dozen.”

Slowly the price of eggs started dropping. The distributors had to slash their prices to make room for the eggs coming from the egg farmers.

The egg farmers cut their prices because the distributors wouldn’t buy at a higher price than they were selling eggs for. Anyway, they had full warehouses and wouldn’t need eggs for quite a while.

And those chickens kept on laying.

Eventually, the egg farmers cut their prices because they were throwing away eggs they couldn’t sell.

The distributors started buying again because the eggs were priced to where the stores could afford to sell them at the lower price.

And the customers starting buying by the dozen again.

Now, transpose this analogy to the gasoline industry.

What if everyone only bought Rs 200.00 worth of Petrol each time they pulled to the pump? The dealer’s tanks would stay semi full all the time. The dealers wouldn’t have room for the gas coming from the huge tanks. The tank farms wouldn’t have room for the petrol coming from the refining plants. And the refining plants wouldn’t have room for the oil being off loaded from the huge tankers coming from the oil fiends.

Just Rs. 200.00 each time you buy gas. Don’t fill up the tank of your car. You may have to stop for gas twice a week, but the price should come down.

Think about it.

Also, don’t buy anything else at the fuel station; don’t give them any more of your hard earned money than what you spend on gas, until the prices come down…”

..just think of this concept for a while.

- ;) Rajeev Damani :)

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Revolutionary move by Jet & Kingfisher

Economy
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Jet Airways and Kingfisher Airlines, two of the rivals in aviation industry have undergone an operational alliance to minimize their runway losses. The alliance will encompass sharing of codes on domestic and international flights, leveraging the joint network, joint fuel management, common ground handling, cross-selling of flight inventories, network rationalisation, cross-utilisation of crew, reciprocity in Jet Privilege and King Club programme.

- ;) Rajeev Damani :)

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